Statistical Model Getting Crushed For Grading Shea Patterson Above Dwayne Haskins

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first_imgShea Patterson of the Michigan Wolverines looks to pass.ANN ARBOR, MI – OCTOBER 13: Shea Patterson #2 of the Michigan Wolverines looks to pass while playing the Wisconsin Badgers on October 13, 2018 at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Michigan won the game 38-13. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)Calling Dwayne Haskins and Shea Patterson the two best quarterbacks in the Big Ten last season is not a controversial stand. Most would acknowledge that Haskins was the league’s best signal caller though.In Ryan Day and Urban Meyer’s system, Haskins threw for 4,831 yards, 50 touchdowns, and just eight interceptions in his only year as Ohio State’s starter. He threw for an impressive 9.1 yards per attempt and completed 70-percent of his throws.As a result, Haskins is the odds-on favorite to be the first quarterback taken in the upcoming NFL Draft.Other quarterbacks like Kyler Murray and Drew Lock may give him a run, but as of today, it would be surprising to see him make it out of the top 10 picks.That isn’t to say that Patterson wasn’t good, but his stats don’t stack up with Haskins, his team had a worse season, and lost the head-to-head match-up handily.Patterson threw for 2,600 yards, 22 touchdowns, and seven interceptions on the season, with a 64.4 completion percentage and yards per attempt number of 8.0.Despite the disparity in raw numbers, analytics site Pro Football Focus had Shea Patterson graded ahead of Dwayne Haskins for the 2018 season.The site does play-by-play grading and analysis on every player during the season, and published its numbers for Big Ten’s quarterbacks.From its explanation on its quarterback grades:How does PFF actually grade quarterbacks? The basic grading system at PFF is a plus/minus scale, in which players are rewarded for positive plays above expectation and penalized for negative plays in increments of 0.5. Executing a simple screen pass will earn the quarterback a zero grade, as it is entirely expected.Missing on the same screen will earn them a negative grade, because you expect an NFL quarterback to make that pass, but there is still room in the scale to punish them more severely if they miss in a way that puts the ball in danger of a turnover, or worse still if they manage to make such a mess of it that they pitch the ball straight to a defender for a pick-six with nothing to mitigate that negative grade.The Big Ten QB race was very close, and given the tweet sent along with the numbers, PFF had to know this would be controversial.The highest-graded quarterback in the B1G this season was Shea Patterson, who narrowly edged out Dwayne Haskins in overall grade. Both were spectacular this season. pic.twitter.com/lWzdRpOUEh— PFF College (@PFF_College) February 11, 2019Ohio State fans are not taking this one well, and even some Michigan fans are confused by the numbers.Im a Michigan fan and this still confuses me….— Sherbs (@JoeySherbs) February 11, 2019I’ll stick with the eye test on this one.— Adam (@abierOU) February 11, 2019Huh??? Haskins and it is not close. And we are Michigan fans.Haskins: 70% comp., 50(!!!) TD, 8 Int., 4,831 yards, 174.1 Rating, 13-1 record (drilled Michigan)Patterson: 64% comp., 22 TD, 7 Int., 2,600 yards, 149.4 Rating, 10-3 record (got blown out by Ohio State)— Perfect Fit Athletic (@PerfectFitAR) February 11, 2019Pretty sure someone forgot to carry the one somewhere in this calculation.— William Frenchek (@wmfrenchek) February 11, 2019Michigan fan here, no way Haskins should finish below 1st in this list— Tyler Patterson (@michiganPat) February 11, 2019If your formula ended with this result, you need to reevaluate your formula— Ryan (@Rycrev) February 11, 2019You are talking about Haskins at Ohio State right? The guy who broke Brees single season TD record? And the most pass yards in a single season. Same Haskins right?— Chris Smith (@ChrisSm100904) February 11, 2019PFF does good work, and its system is unique and often produces enlightening results, but occasionally you get something controversial like this.While Haskins is off to the NFL, Patterson is set to return to Michigan, with former Alabama co-offensive coordinator Josh Gattis taking over the offense, and potentially turning it in more of a spread direction, given the success that Tua Tagovailoa has had in Tuscaloosa.While most of us certainly preferred Haskins this season, the book isn’t shut on Patterson’s college career yet.last_img

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